The 246th Derby della Madonnina at San Siro on March 8, 2026, was a tactical game of chicken between Massimiliano Allegri and Cristian Chivu. Allegri, notorious for his pragmatic flexibility, opted to mirror Inter’s 3-5-2 system, a move specifically designed to create 1v1 duels across the pitch and neutralize Inter’s numerical superiority in the midfield pivot. By deploying Youssouf Fofana and Adrien Rabiot as high-intensity disruptors, Milan successfully prevented Piotr Zielinski from establishing his usual metronomic rhythm. The tactical gamble centered on the asymmetric positioning of Pervis Estupiñán. Nominally a left wing-back, Estupiñán was instructed to stay deeper during the initial build-up phase to draw Yann Bisseck out of the defensive line before exploding into the 'half-space' vacuum. This specific adjustment allowed Milan to maintain 59% possession in the first half, far exceeding their season average of 48%, as they successfully manipulated Inter’s defensive staggering through a series of lateral rotations that pulled the Nerazzurri wide.
The Estupiñán Surge: Geometric Exploitation of the Left Channel
The game’s decisive tactical sequence arrived in the 35th minute, born from a moment of transitional chaos that Allegri has spent weeks drilling. Just sixty seconds prior, Henrikh Mkhitaryan had bypassed Milan’s high line but was denied by a world-class reflex save from Mike Maignan (registering a 0.44 xG prevented). Milan’s counter-offensive was surgical in its verticality. Fofana recovered the ball and immediately targeted the right-sided channel of Inter’s defense, where Luis Henrique—a late inclusion for the feverish Marcus Thuram—had failed to track back in time. Pervis Estupiñán executed a perfectly timed 40-meter vertical sprint, receiving Fofana’s threaded through-ball and unleashing a powerful left-footed strike into the top corner. The goal, Estupiñán’s first in a Rossoneri jersey, carried an xG of 0.11 but was the culmination of a structural plan to exploit Inter’s wing-back recovery pace. By the interval, Milan had recorded 7 shots to Inter's 3, effectively suffocating the league leaders in their own backyard.
Phase 2: The Midfield Siege and Dimarco’s Failed Inversion
Inter’s response in the second half was a relentless pursuit of central penetration. Chivu shifted Federico Dimarco into a more advanced 'inverted winger' role, tasking Alessandro Bastoni with providing the width from the back three in a makeshift 2-3-5 offensive structure. This created a recurring 3v2 overload against Milan’s pivot of Fofana and Rabiot. In the 55th minute, this structural advantage should have yielded an equalizer. A pinpoint cross from the overlapping Luis Henrique found Francesco Pio Esposito, who laid the ball off perfectly for the arriving Dimarco. However, the wing-back’s strike from 10 yards sailed over the bar—a miss worth 0.38 xG that proved to be Inter’s last clear sighting of the goal. Milan’s defensive resilience was anchored by Fikayo Tomori, who recorded 6 clearances and 3 crucial blocks, maintaining a defensive distance of just 18 meters between the lines to stifle Inter’s attempts at vertical playmaking through the middle.
Game Management and the 'Sergio Ramos Spirit'
As the match entered its final quarter, Allegri showcased his 'Corto Muso' philosophy in its purest form. The double substitution of Rafael Leão and Fofana for Niclas Füllkrug and Samuele Ricci in the 73rd minute signaled a total shift to a 5-4-1 low-block. Milan’s Field Tilt—a measure of territorial dominance—plummeted to a staggering 9% in the final ten minutes as they invited Inter onto them, banking on their aerial superiority in the box. The tactical discipline was immense; Milan recorded a PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) of 18.2, prioritizing defensive shape over active ball recovery. Luka Modrić, despite receiving an 89th-minute yellow card for a tactical foul, was instrumental in recycling possession and wasting precious seconds. Inter’s frustration boiled over in stoppage time when a goal from a corner was ruled out by Daniele Doveri for a prior foul on Maignan by Yann Sommer, who had come up for the set-piece. Statistically, Milan’s efficiency was the differentiator, securing 3 points from 1.02 xG while Inter failed to convert from a superior 1.48 xG total.
Historical Context and Scudetto Implications
This 1-0 victory marks the first time since the 2010/11 season—also under the guidance of Massimiliano Allegri—that AC Milan have completed a league double over Inter. The result reduces Inter’s lead at the top of Serie A to 7 points (67 to 60) with ten games remaining, providing a glimmer of hope for a title race that many deemed finished in February. For Inter, the loss snapped a 15-game unbeaten run and exposed a critical reliance on the absent Lautaro Martínez; without their captain, the Nerazzurri lacked the clinical 'edge' to capitalize on their 12 total shots. For Milan, the tactical success of the mirrored 3-5-2 provides a blueprint for the final stretch of the campaign. The Rossoneri have now kept 13 clean sheets this season, underscoring a defensive maturity that has kept them mathematically in the hunt. As the Milan support celebrated what Estupiñán called 'the most important goal of his life,' the tactical flexibility of Allegri once again proved to be the ultimate kryptonite for a ball-dominant opponent in a high-stakes environment.
Final Metric Autopsy
The final data sheet paints a picture of a match won in the margins. Inter’s 62% total possession and 164 total passes in the final third were ultimately neutralized by Milan’s 24 successful tackles and Maignan’s shot-stopping excellence, which finished with a PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) of +0.62. The Derby della Madonnina remains a territory of fine margins, where a single inverted run from a wing-back can dismantle a league leader’s unbeaten streak. While Inter will point to their 1.48 xG as evidence of misfortune, the tactical reality is that Allegri’s 'rest defense' remained unbroken under the most intense pressure San Siro has seen this season. As the title race enters its final act, the psychological shift from this result may prove more significant than the three points themselves.